Off-Grid Solar and the Path to Universal Electrification

Key messages from the report

Progress toward universal electrification reversed for the first time in 20 years in 2022, a year in which 685 million people lacked access to electricity. According to current trends, 660 million people will still lack access in 2030, 85% of them in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Despite significant progress in narrowing the access gap over the past two decades, 685 million people worldwide still lived without access to electricity in 2022—the last year for which data are available. The population lacking access dropped from over 1.2 billion people in 2005 to 675 million in 2021, but this trend reversed when population growth surpassed the expansion of electricity access.

Since 2005, progress in electrification has been uneven across regions; while South Asia has made rapid progress, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen behind. South Asia has seen a rapid increase in access to electricity, accounting for 75% of the decline in the population lacking access since 2005. In contrast, Sub-Saharan Africa, home to 85% of the world’s population lacking access (around 571 million people), has struggled with high population growth, affordability issues and conflicts.

These challenges have primarily affected rural areas and countries with unstable governments, leading to slower progress in electrification. Advances in Sub-Saharan Africa have occurred mainly in urban settings and more stable regions, underscoring the need for targeted interventions to address those areas at risk of being left behind.

Nearly half of the population lacking access to electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be concentrated in Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda. Progress in Nigeria—where 86 million people still lack electricity—is critical to achieving SDG 7. Despite its position as West Africa's economic powerhouse, Nigeria struggles with an unreliable grid, even in urban areas. The DRC follows closely, with 76 million people lacking access as of 2022. Grid coverage is limited to the capital, Kinshasa—emphasizing the need for off-grid solutions.

Globally, 63% of those without electricity access currently reside in fragile, conflict-affected, and vulnerable (FCV) countries, up from 57% in 2018. This increase highlights the growing challenge faced by these regions, where weak governance and limited fiscal capacity have led to significant underinvestment in the energy sector. Current power sector development strategies—including plans for off-grid solar market development—are often inadequate for addressing the complex issues unique to FCV contexts, such as instability and insecurity.

If current trends continue, the world will fall short of achieving SDG 7, leaving 660 million people lacking access to electricity in 2030. Those still lacking access are harder to reach, because of remoteness and low incomes, as well as fragility and conflict, compared to those that have gained access in recent years.

Off-Grid Solar (OGS) represents the least-cost solution for 398 million people (41%) out of a total of 969 million people that will need to be electrified by 2030, accounting for population growth, according to World Bank Electrification Platform

OGS represents the least-cost solution for 398 million people (41%) out of a total of 1.03 billion people that will need to be electrified between now and 2030. For countries with relatively low per capita incomes, low population density, and challenges relating to fragility and conflict—such as South Sudan, Somalia, and Niger—OGS can represent the least-cost solution for a significant proportion of the population (61%, 70% and 70%, respectively).

OGS can serve as an interim solution for households, businesses, and public institutions that will eventually benefit from grid or mini grid connections. It also offers an alternative electricity source for the 1.6 billion people with intermittent access to grid electricity, replacing the use of generators and enabling both households and governments to save money on subsidized fuel. OGS enables households, businesses, and farmers to use electricity productively and generate income and enhances health and education outcomes in unelectrified communities by powering essential social infrastructure such as schools, healthcare facilities, and community centers.